The Last 100 Days ... by the numbers

[Roy Hersh]

BEAR MARKET - 100 days ago . . . the S&P 500 was down 14.1% YTD (total return). As of last Friday, the S&P 500 is down 38.7% YTD. Thus, the S&P 500 has fallen 28.6% in the last 100 days, a performance that would rank as the 6th worst bear market of the last half-century. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research, S&P).
NOT WORTH AS MUCH - 100 days ago . . . the stock market capitalization of the S&P 500 was $10.9 trillion. As of last Friday’s close of business, the market capitalization of the stock index had fallen to $7.7 trillion, a loss of $3.2 trillion. By comparison, the US government spent $3.0 trillion for the entire 2008 fiscal year (source: S&P, Treasury Department).
AMAZING VOLATILITY - 100 days ago . . . was 9/06/08. As of that date, the S&P 500 had produced 26 days with a gain or loss of at least 4% in the=2 0previous 7,626 days, a period of almost 21 years. As of today, the S&P 500 has had 26 days with a gain or loss of at least 4% in the last 100 days (source: BTN Research).
WHOOPS - 100 days ago . . . 9 Wall Street equity strategists predicted where the S&P 500 would finish the year 2008. Their average year-end forecast was 1363. The stock index close last week at 880 (source: Barron’s).
BONDS - 100 days ago . . . the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 3.69%. As of last Friday’s close, the yield on the 10-year note was 2.60%, a drop of more than 1%. The last time the yield on the 10-year note changed (either up or down) by more than 1% over the course of a calendar year was 2002 (source: BTN Research).
FED ACTION - 100 days ago . . . the Federal Reserve’s key short-term interest rate was 2.0%. Today that rate is 1.0% after 2 separate ½ of 1% rate cuts implemented in October. The Fed holds its final meeting for calendar year 2008 today and tomorrow, the 25th in Ben Bernanke’s career as Fed Chairman (source: Federal Reserve).
< LI>MORTGAGE MESS - 100 days ago . . . was the first weekend in September and rumors surfaced that the US government might be forced to take control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The 2 firms have issued more than $5 trillion of debt and mortgage-backed securities. The seizure of the companies was announced by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson on Sunday 9/07/08 and included a pledge to make as much as $200 billion available to deal with future mortgage defaults (source: Wall Street Journal).
CLOSE THE DOORS - 100 days ago . . . Lehman Brothers was in the investment banking business, as it had been for the previous 158 years. When no "white knight" emerged to rescue Lehman Brothers, the firm that had invested heavily in subprime mortgages was forced to file for bankruptcy protection on Monday 9/15/08. The company, which began in 1850 in Montgomery, AL and had survived the Great Depression, listed $639 billion of assets in its court filing, the largest US bankruptcy ever (source: Wall Street Journal).
HOUSING INDUSTRY - 100 days ago . . . 303,879 homeowners had received at least 1 foreclosure-related filing (e.g., default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions) in the previous month (August 2008). 259,085 homeowners received a foreclosur e-filing in November 2008 (source: RealtyTrac Inc.).
HOW BIG? - 100 days ago . . . few people outside the investment world had ever heard of "credit default swaps," a derivative that provides insurance protection in the event of a default. The total market value of this largely unregulated derivative as of 6/30/08 was $55 trillion (source: Fortune).
"I MADE A MISTAKE" - 100 days ago . . . Alan Greenspan was widely viewed as a successful Fed Chairman. His "halo" was tarnished when he was grilled before a House committee on 10/23/08 and admitted that he had opposed efforts to regulate derivatives (e.g., credit default swaps) as far back as 1998 (source: Financial Times).
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION - 100 days ago . . . the unemployment rate in the USA was 6.1% and the number of idled workers nationwide was 9.38 million. Today the unemployment rate is 6.7% and the number of out-of-work Americans is 10.33 million. Thus over the last 100 days, 950,000 workers have lost their jobs (source: DOL).
GAS - 100 days ago . . . the nationwide average price of a gallon of gasoline was $3.67. The average gas price fell for 86 consecutive days, a streak that ended last Saturday (12/13/08). The cost of a gallon of gasoline dropped to $1.66 on Saturday, down $2.01 from 100 days ago (source: AAA).
OIL PRICES - 100 days ago . . . the price of oil was $106.23 a barrel. The price of a barrel of oil closed last Friday at $46.28, down $60 a barrel or 56% in the 100-day period (source: New York Mercantile Exchange).
MR. PRESIDENT - 100 days ago . . . Barack Obama was the junior senator from Illinois (source: BTN Research).

[Ray Barnes]

The one statistic of which I have yet to hear official reports is the incidences of suicide. Given this historic financial debacle, I expect many to "quit", for lack of a better term. This was one of the tragic results of the tech stock implosion a few years ago, when .dot com became .dot gone.

While these results would dishearten the stoutest of spirits, it is worth remembering that the seed of every cataclysmic event is its resolution, that everything can and ultimately produces its opposite effect.

As a Canadian I shall defer from making comments about American politics - and my views on politics are very unorthodox and could cause offence here if I were asked to speak my personal perception of truth. It is worth remembering in general though, that it is darkest, and often coldest, before the dawn of a new day.

Ray