2011 Port Futures

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Is there a 2011 VP port bubble and will prices in the next 2 calendar years go down?

Yes, the 2011 VP is overpriced and I foresee that the price will decrease during the next 2 years.
6
24%
No, the 2011 VP price will remain pretty much constant for the next 2 years.
16
64%
No, I think the prices will get even higher and that is why I have bought / am buying now.
3
12%
 
Total votes: 25

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Glenn E.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Glenn E. »

Al B. wrote:... if I haven't drunk it all.
That seems like a rather large risk. Perhaps I should endeavor to acquire my own stock. :wink: [friends.gif]
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Russ K
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Russ K »

While they may have claimed to have had 18, and now have none, that doesn't mean they took orders for 18 bottles. Perhaps only reality set in and they adjusted their inventory.[/quote]
Very possible. But they have a habit of selling things they don't have yet (or so it appears) and then taking years to deliver (or not) said bottles. There is enough people on other wine boards who've complained about having orders cancelled or waiting years to get stuff from them that I refuse to buy any pre-arrival things from them. However, If they have it physically in stock they are a great store to buy from.[/quote]

They are pre arrival, but I don't plan on opening them any time soon, so if it takes a while, the price is still low enough to make sense than the 700+ prices out there. If it takes a season or two, big deal, I have had the same experiences with TCWC, sometimes it takes a while. I am willing to have some patience, so we will see.
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Roy Hersh
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Roy Hersh »

I'm satisfied that in terms of a declared year, 2011 ranks above averarge, whilst falling a little short of some 2009s, that were really exceptional.
To be fair, I will just say: WOW. [shrug.gif]
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Jeff G.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Jeff G. »

I'll put myself on a limb and say that i love the tfp releases in 09 better than the tfp releases in 11
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Roy Hersh
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Roy Hersh »

Jeff, even if that was so, given trying them side-by-side which is pretty unlikely ... then what about the rest of the 2009 VP's?

They're better than their 2011 counterparts? Really?
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Al B.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Al B. »

Personally, I think the 2011 vintage is better than the 2009 vintage, not because more people declared 2011 but because I just enjoy the powerful, sweet fruit and sheer ripeness of the tannins and acidity I find in the wines.

2009 I found to be more structured, with less vibrant fruit and more a more classic style.

To me there are similarities between the 1994 (lots of fruit, structure swamped by the fruit in its early life) and 1997 (massive tannins that just swamped the fruit). I prefered the 1994 vintage and still do, but I know others who think the 1997 vintage to be the better of the two.

Isn't the difference in personal taste one of the reasons we love this drink? There's something for everyone...
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Jeff G. »

Roy Hersh wrote:Jeff, even if that was so, given trying them side-by-side which is pretty unlikely ... then what about the rest of the 2009 VP's?

They're better than their 2011 counterparts? Really?
that wans't the statement tom made

"I'm satisfied that in terms of a declared year, 2011 ranks above averarge, whilst falling a little short of some 2009s, that were really exceptional."

did 2011 fall a little short of some 2009s that were really exceptional. I think so

I'm giving the TFP ports as an example.

Not sure why you think I haven't tried the taylor/fonseca/croft 09/11 side by side? I scored taylor/fonseca and croft higher for the 2009s personally when had side by side.

I made no statements about the rest of the 2011s

edit:

teh 2011 croft is rubbish.
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Roy Hersh
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Roy Hersh »

Agree with your assessment of 1994 and 1997 Alex. Were you comparing either to 2009 or 2011?

Jeff, sorry if I misunderstood. I thought you were implying across the board the 2009's were better. Misread on my part. [kez_11.gif]
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Tom Archer
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Tom Archer »

I'll put myself on a limb and say that i love the tfp releases in 09 better than the tfp releases in 11
+1

The Taylor '11 is a fine wine that is far superior to the T07, but no match for the T09 - a wine that I am quietly confident will emerge as an iconic port in the future.

The Fonseca '11 left me rather underwhelmed, but it may yet blossom. Again, much better than the F07, but not as pure and refined as the F09.

The Croft '11 did not impress. Here the Cr07 may be slightly better, but that's not saying much. The Cr09 is a step down from the Taylor and Fonseca of that year, but clearly the best of the three vintages.

The joker in the pack is Skeffington. I don't recall trying either the SK07 or Sk11, so I can't make a comparison between the vintages, but the Sk09 is a superb VP, given the price..
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Glenn E.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Glenn E. »

Tom Archer wrote:The joker in the pack is Skeffington.
Isn't Skeffington a blend of the "leftovers" from the other TFP product lines? And isn't it a UK-only brand?

I can see how even the leftovers from something great could be blended to make a very fine Port.
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Tom Archer
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Tom Archer »

I can see how even the leftovers from something great could be blended to make a very fine Port.
Yes, unlike blending tawnies, where you call on sorts of stocks to make your blend; making good VP is hampered by what is often a very limited number of lots and the need to use only the wine of one year.

And if you've got far more good juice than you need for your major blends, putting together a budget priced second wine makes a great deal of sense.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Jeff G. »

Roy Hersh wrote:Agree with your assessment of 1994 and 1997 Alex. Were you comparing either to 2009 or 2011?

Jeff, sorry if I misunderstood. I thought you were implying across the board the 2009's were better. Misread on my part. [kez_11.gif]
yea, no way, across the board the 11's I feel are stronger.

I went almost 10 cases deep on the symington line up for 2011 and not including quevedo, 4 cases on the others but only 1.5 case on the tfp lineup. (and really my obligatory fonseca and taylor vp with taylor vvv)

09, I only picked up 1 case of the symington line and 4 cases of the tfp.
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Roy Hersh
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Roy Hersh »

Tom,

I have never been impressed by the Croft 2007. Awkward at best, even now. I had it again this past summer in hopes that my conclusions were wrong from the time it left cask. Not the case, for my palate.
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Eric Menchen
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Eric Menchen »

And some 2011 shows up at auction, starting at US$ 40 + 15% for a 375ml:
http://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/454 ... 11-Grahams
http://www.winebid.com/BuyWine/Item/454 ... 11-Grahams
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Roy Hersh
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Roy Hersh »

The original owner? What did he have them for, 10 minutes? [rotfl.gif]
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John F. Newman
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by John F. Newman »

7 months later... any comments on prices today vs. last fall?
Eric Menchen
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Eric Menchen »

Most prices have been hovering in the same range as far as I've noticed. I saw Warres originally for as low as $60, then those went away and the cheapest was $65 and then $70. Now I see some again for $60. I bought Taylor for $75. Checking on wine-searcher today the lowest price I see is ... $75. I bought Quinta do Vesuvio for $62. Today, $62.50.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Russ K »

pretty consistent. I have paid a bit more than Eric, but I have not probably been as diligent in my shopping. Checked on a couple times right around shipping seasons to see what was in stock, and ended up most pre arrival anyways because I have no self control. Anyways, prices are virtually the same, but there are some better pricing at 199 for the high end Taylor VVV and Grahams ST floating around now, where in the fall you couldn't really even source it in the USA I found.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Glenn E. »

Prices of the "premium" labels (VVV, Capela, GST) start out rather high - sometimes as high as $250 - and then backed off. I bought mostly in the $200 range, but also managed to acquire some GST for $160.

VVV is back up to $225
Capela is all the way down to $125 (to be fair, it was always lower than the other two)
GST is back up to $200

So I'd say the initial offerings at the retail level were a bit overpriced. There was a bit of an over-correction which was a great time to buy, and now it seems like they've settled into what may be a long-term price. At this point I don't seem them getting significantly cheaper, and due to the limited quantities they could easily start a slow climb as their availability continues to decline.
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Re: 2011 Port Futures

Post by Roy Hersh »

Given the small quantities produced for "most" of the 2011 Vintage Ports, I think this will be the game changer. In a decade's time, I believe we will see the 2011's at pricing considerably higher than today. When I say that, I am speak of the blue chip to 10 or even top 15-20 VPs of the vintage. Sure there will always be some secondary and tertiary tier producers that will need cash flow and release another tranch in the future, possibly at reasonable/discounted prices. But I don't think that 2011 will see the reversal of fortune akin to 2000 en primeur campaigns vs. prices found today. Again, the quality is a given for most of the 2011's, but the other key is the quantities produced. The Symingtons have gone on the record saying they did not hold back any 2011's for later sale. Several smaller producers have told me the same, in confidence. As you'll read this weekend when the newsletter is released, finally, there are those that will make further comments on this exact dynamic.
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