Is Noval Nacional worth the price?

[Monique Heinemans.]

I don't want to hurt anybody's feelings, but I was just asking myself this question after reading Fred's purchase at 570 US Dollars wich was considdered almost a "bargain". I never have and probably never will buy a bottle of wine, wether it is a still wine or a fortified wine, at that amound of money. I can't believe that any wine at a price ten times another outstanding wine can also taste five or ten times better or give me five times more pleasure.
Maybe I'm mistaken here, but isn't it a bit about the name also? Or am I just missing a great experience?
Again: I'm not judging anybody, just want to know your thoughts on this.

[Frederick Blais]

Of course the answer is no. Just like anything in this economy, the price is fixed based on offer and demand and also the illusion of being special if you have/wear this or that.

Yes it is produce with great care and it probably receive extra attention from the crew, but not 5-10 times more than other Vintage Port. It will definitively not provide 5-10 more pleasure either. But it is definitively a special Port that has a unique profile of flavours that no other Port is coming close to achieve.

So, I'm a Port freak and I wanted the bottle for one day probably have that special meeting with this bottle.

It was 570can$... bargain compared to the other markets because Quebec's market is free of speculation but not taxes, sometimes taxes are lower than speculation

[Eric Menchen]

I think Monique' question is fair, and while I own several bottles of Nacional, I take no offense. And I think Frederick's reply captures some of the salient points to the discussion, but I've thought about this a bit and wish to expound ...

Certainly a reasonable case can be made that Nacional, at 5-10+ times the cost of other Ports of similar years, including the Quinta do Noval non-Nacional, is not 5-10+ times as good. It probably won't provide 5-10+ times the pleasure. If we were to look at scores, a Nacional might get a 98 in one year and the regular Noval might get a 94; in another year maybe the Nacional gets 100 and the regular Noval pulls a 97. Some years might have an even bigger difference (and some smaller, or possibly even negative), but even after we adjust for the fact the scale only uses about 15 or 20% of its range, points make it hard to justify the multiple in price. Is the 100 point scale linear in that 80-100 range, or is the 20 point scale linear at the top? Maybe it is, maybe is isn't quite so, but I don't think anyone will suggest it is logarithmic.

Lets assume the point scales are more-or-less linear, at least at the top range. But the quality of wines certainly are not. They probably are more likely to fall on some sort of bell curve distribution. The result of this is that while there are plenty of wines around 90 points, there are a fair bit less with 95, less at 97, and just a few that score 99 or 100 points. Let's not get into arguments over individual critics, but I hope we can agree that wines of the highest quality are more rare. Oh, and it doesn't help that not only are there less number of brands that are of the highest quality, typically there is less production of those brands, at least this is the case with Noval Nacional. So with rareness we move along the supply demand curve, and voila, the price goes up. From an economic definition, yes, the Nacional is worth the price because some people are willing to pay it. Here we are starting to get into the realm of perceived value.

We can look at other commodities and products and find similar stories. Silver has some value as an industrial good, as does gold, albeit not as much. But these do command a high price on the market because people believe them to be valuable, and to some, a store of value. What about diamonds? Certainly industrial diamonds have great value for what they are used for, but they are nowhere near the cost of jewelry grade diamonds, which command an incredibly high price on the market. Of course this is largely due to a strong command of the market by de Beers. Are diamonds worth the price? A lot of people think so. I don't really, nor do I get distinct pleasure from looking at them, so I don't invest in them. But I do think diamonds will continue to hold a fairly high value. Likewise I think my Nacional will continue to hold a fairly high value, but that isn't why I own it. I bought the few I have because I intend to drink them.

So back to drinking. When I open one of those Nacionals, will it give me 5-10x the pleasure? Maybe not. Maybe it will only give me two times the pleasure. Maybe one will be a bad bottle and give no real pleasure, but disappointment. Then again, I will probably open one of the 1997s for my 25th wedding anniversary. There alone will be a factor that will multiply the pleasure. I can open a 90 point bottle of wine on one night and enjoy it, and then open an identical tasting bottle on another night and get twice the pleasure. Maybe the second night we have friends over for dinner, maybe it is just the food that accompanies it, or maybe it is just my mood or the location. While I like Peter Meek's philosophy that any day is reason enough to open a nice bottle, the fact is there are special occasions and special bottles. I hope some of my Nacional lives up to that. Maybe the Nacional itself is twice as good, and specialness of the occasion makes things twice as good, and the people and conversation multiple that even further?

This brings up another element of non-linearity. Even if the Nacional costs ten times as much as a different Port, but only gives twice as much drinking pleasure, could that be worth it? I personally would struggle paying based solely on those multiples. But getting back to the rareness factor, we have other examples like this in society. How much does it cost to climb Mt. Everest? They just changed the fee structure, but it used to run $60,000. You want to climb K2, or another mountain that is pretty high but not Everest? That's going to be a whole lot cheaper. How about athletes? Most people in the world can run, and there are thousands upon thousands of high school and college athletes that can perform at a very high level. But they will never get any money for that. Only the top 1%, maybe less, will make it into the pros. Once there, pick your sport, and you will find that the highest level athletes make multiples more money than those at the bottom, which we already established were pretty elite just to be making any money at all. Is LeBron James 10x better than the average NBA player? No, but even if he is just 20% better, that can make all the difference.

I hope my Nacionals provide a sublime drinking experience. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. For now, I think fondly of them sitting in my cellar, and they are worth the price.

(And I didn't even get into whether a DRC or Mouton is worth the price.)

[Monique Heinemans.]

Thank you Fred and Eric, for sharing your thoughts about this. I do understand your points of view and realise that almost anything in the world depents on supply and demand. But personally I always try to draw a line where I say: this is the limit. That's why I asked the question.
But I truly hope that one day you enjoy your bottle!

, Monique

[Frederick Blais]

I always try to draw the line as well :)

[Paul Fountain]

I guess you could ask this about any wine.
The event that got me hooked on port was a Noval tasting about 5 years ago now, and I remember doing that comparison 2003 Noval VP and the 03 LBV. I remember asking that question of myself - was the Noval VP 3 times better than the LBV. The answer I came up with was no and I ended up not buying the VP. (As I got more hooked I later went back and bought the VP at auction though)

Exactly a week ago, I found a shop that had Warres 2011 VP and decided I'd go in and buy a few. When I got there, they told me they had got the 2011 Grahams in that very morning. This presented me with a dilemma. The Warres was AU$130 and the Grahams $200. I ended up with 2 bottles of Grahams (After I had a mild heart attack at the price - the most I've ever paid for a bottle of wine), 3 full bottles of Warres as well as a couple of Warres 375s.
I visited Grahams on the 2011 harvest tour so I was really wanted some, since I was at Quinta dos Malvedos at vintage and did a fantastic vertical tasting there with Henry Shotton and Paul Symington there. I've not been to Warres at all but I do like the style.
Had the Grahams been the same price as the Warres, I think I would have bought a 1/2 dozen of the Grahams and maybe 2 or 3 of the Warres. Had the Warres been the same price as the Grahams, I think I would have bought 3 Grahams and no Warres. Should I have spent as much as I ended up spending? Probably not, but I could afford to, without bringing any financial hardship on myself so I did.

I guess what I am saying here is that not all the factors are economic and that I was willing to pay a premium on the Grahams given the experiences that I have had there (within reason).

My guess is that Fred has been to Noval, met the winemaker and possibly Christian Seely, as well as possibly trying few back vintages and these things would have some sort of impact on how he values the wine

[Moses Botbol]

Nacional is actually a bargain if you compare it against 1st Growth and Grand Cru Champagne. Nacional has the prestige of the best wines in the world and the case production ensures that it has more inherent value than wine made in the 10-100K case quantities. A well bought bottle of Nacional will always be worth a lot more in the decades ahead. For wine investing; it sure fire bet although the entry point is quite expensive. I would avoid Nacional's from the 1980's as they really aren't up to snuff compared the everything else they've ever released.

[Eric Ifune]

I at one time had a limit on prices I would spend, but found that later I broke that limit. These were for exceedingly rare wines which may have only a dozen or so available for the entire world, and I really wanted them. Nacional is perhaps not so rare, but relative to other fine wines, it is very rare, and much better known. If you want the wine, for whatever reason, and the financial means, I see no reason to get it. I have long realized there are many people in the world with much higher financial resources than me, and I have no problem with that.

[Al B.]

What's great about a question like this is that each of us has a different idea of the relative worth of different ports. Every time I have the chance to buy port I have to decide on something - do I want two bottles of Graham 2011 or three bottles of Graham 1985 for the same cost? Would I prefer to pay the same amount of money and get 6 bottles of Noval 2011 or 1 bottle of Nacional?

For me the question comes down to my personal preference for variety. As appealing as the idea sounds, I'm convinced I would get bored if all I had in my VP cellar was Fonseca 1966. I like to try different ports and to taste one against another looking for similarities and differences. Nacional is part of this interest, even the vintages from the '80s which have a poor reputation - I want to try them for myself to see if I agree with their reputation. I accept that this means from time to time I will need to forgo the chance to buy several bottles of port in order to buy just one, but I know that is what I will have to do to drink Nacional and I'm happy to pay that sort of price once every few years to be able to do so.

[Moses Botbol]

What's great about a question like this is that each of us has a different idea of the relative worth of different ports. Every time I have the chance to buy port I have to decide on something - do I want two bottles of Graham 2011 or three bottles of Graham 1985 for the same cost? Would I prefer to pay the same amount of money and get 6 bottles of Noval 2011 or 1 bottle of Nacional?

I can say without a doubt I'd take three bottles of '85 Graham over two of '11 Graham. Port takes too long for it to be where I like it; let's say 2040, a 1985 port will a lot more interesting and rare.

[Jim R.]

Never having had any National I can only say hat I like cost-effective variety and would definitely take three 1985 Grahams versus two 2011 Grahams. Also I don't believe I will be around when the 2011 is drinking well (I like aged vintages) so it is not that attractive to me. If I get the chance of tasting the National that will be nice. I might scrape up the money to go on one of Roy's trips! At any rate raise a glass and enjoy it (whichever port it is). Regards

[Alan McDonald]

Lots of sound philosophy behind everyone's post. I think that is the (non)answer to the question - our own philosophy on any matter, including the price of Nacional, or anything else, is the determining factor in assessing value.

I buy wine purely to complement food, and wholeheartedly agree with Eric that some days are better than others when it comes down to the amount of pleasure derived from anything - the occasion, the company, your own sate of mind and health. Some days I feel like drinking something special and opt for one of my better bottles in the cellar, although since I hit 70 in a month I have stopped buying VP for myself. Moses' 2040 dateline might be beyond my reach.

My own philosophy (I even published a book about it) is that I have no need to strive to be wealthy so that I can buy expensive commodities - provided I can enjoy my life on my own bit of land. Enjoying life includes eating well and drinking wine of sufficient quality that it enhances the enjoyment of the food. I am quite happy to try anything and have found some run of the mill wines to be quite adequate.

As I have said before, the Portuguese appear not to be too interested in Port and I have never seen a Nacional for sale, so I have a good excuse for not having bought one.

[John Vachon]

Not a fan of Nacional. In the 90's my wine group purchased 7 different vintages(no strong years) for about $100

each. We had two tasting(in the first I put in a 1975 Taylor to make 4 in each tasting) To my disappointment

it was much better than any of the Nacional's(all 8 wines were sound).

[Andy Velebil]

Not a fan of Nacional. In the 90's my wine group purchased 7 different vintages(no strong years) for about $100

each. We had two tasting(in the first I put in a 1975 Taylor to make 4 in each tasting) To my disappointment

it was much better than any of the Nacional's(all 8 wines were sound).

You recall what years you guys had?


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[John Vachon]

In the first tasting the only ones I remember were the 1975 Nacional and the 1975 Taylor. My guess is that the other two were older than 1978.

In the second tasting we had the 1978,1980,1982, and 1987(the 78 was a leaker).

[Glenn E.]

I keep coming back to this thread and re-reading it, because the opinions here reflect my own values as well. But I think that Alex summed it up best when he said:

Every time I have the chance to buy port I have to decide on something

That pretty much captures my dilemma with every purchase. Do I want a(nother) bottle of 2011 Graham's Stone Terraces? Or two bottles of 1985 Fonseca? Or three bottles of 1980 Gould Campbell?

I often have Ports that I'm looking for, even if just casually, so when one of those "deals" gets posted in the Marketplace thread I have to really think about whether I want to jump on the deal or continue to save for something else that I want. It's not that the deal isn't good, it's that I might have a higher priority even if that priority isn't strictly speaking a better deal.

So to answer Monique's question... for me, the answer is no. Nacional is just too expensive for what you get. I own a handful, but only one of those was an easy decision. I've tasted maybe a double handful, and have yet to be blown away. There's just this little gremlin sitting on my shoulder asking, with every sip, "for $750/bottle, shouldn't you be blown away?"

[John M.]

Fun discussion....I think Monique, Fred & Eric really made some great talking points....but here is my $0.02...

I think Nacional is worth it when Glenn or Andy are buying.

[Glenn E.]

I think Nacional is worth it when Glenn or Andy are buying.

[Andy Velebil]

Hah!!!!!


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[Brad Bogdan]

So, being on a (comparatively) small budget and limited storage capacity point in my life, I tend to think about the price thing a lot. I often total my wine budget for a month or months and line out what I think my consumption will likely be in wine type, setting and volume. From there, it's not super hard to justify to myself that I'm ok with drinking a lower average cost bottle in daily circumstances to have classic or rare bottles for special occasions or tastings. I lump Nacionals in that second set of bottles, so if they fit my budget (as the '83 Nacionals I purchased a while ago did) I'm happy to buy. If not? Oh well.

Looking to the future, my overall budget will likely expand, but I doubt that my cost for those daily drinkers will go up too much. There is so much value in wines under $20 that I can consume, enjoy and be indicative of place/grape without too much thought for me to want to spend much more on my "Wednesday wines".
That leaves my rare and classic budget as the likely recipient of most of any budget increase. If that means I've got enough to splurge on Nacional, I almost certainly will, along with other things.

Rare and classic wines to me aren't for QPR. They are for (as close to) guaranteed great experiences or for future tastings (or both). It doesn't bother me when there's good tasting things for far less money, I've got those for Wednesdays. Give me something with a great story or great taste (or both) for the special occasions and tastings.


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