2009 Tour de France

[Glenn E.]

What's your one burning question about the Tour this year? Beyond the obvious such as who will win, of course.

Mine is: will Mark Cavendish finish? He's been making a lot of noise about it, but I'm just not sure he can handle a stage 20 summit finish up Mont Ventoux. Which presumes he can even make it that far. I think he'll get dropped if he does actually try to finish the entire tour.

[Andy Velebil]

I don't see Cav. finishing the tour. He is a total sprinter and will get smashed when it hits the tough mountains. I don't think his ego would allow for him to finish so far back on a mountain stage. But it will be interesting to watch. I'm curious about Lance and Contador. I wonder how much of this drama has been staged to take some pressure off of Contador and deflect it to Lance. lance and Brueneel are a cunning pair on and off the bike, and I can see them coming up with such a crazy plan.

[Glenn E.]

I'm curious about Lance and Contador. I wonder how much of this drama has been staged to take some pressure off of Contador and deflect it to Lance.

That occurred to me as well. But I've been trying to watch interviews carefully for any hint of conspiracy, and there's just none there from any side. Yet. So my guess at this point is that they're just going to see how it goes, and make a decision closer to the end. Right now they have 4 riders in the top 10 - all well within easy striking distance - so why show their hand yet?

I have to admit that I find the "blue jersey" that Versus is using to identify where Lance is during the race rather patronizing. :|

[Moses Botbol]

The real leader of Astana will surface on its own. I think Contador will remain the leader. Who knows what will happen though. There's been talk that anyone who wins the TdF this year will be shown to be a doper... Don't think Lance wants that contention over his head, but who would say no to winning the TdF? I think Contador will have more to offer on the mountain stages. It could be an Astana train up the mountain and who ever is the last guy standing, is just that...

Let's not forget Menchov... He is on a roll.

[Andy Velebil]

Let's not forget Menchov... He is on a roll.

But he has some serious time to make up already from his lack luster Time Trial. With 3 more weeks to go, anything could happen though. It should be a fun tour for sure.

[Glenn E.]

Let's not forget Menchov... He is on a roll.

But he has some serious time to make up already from his lack luster Time Trial. With 3 more weeks to go, anything could happen though. It should be a fun tour for sure.

Yeah and I don't think he's going to fair well in the team time trial either. There are a couple of really stacked teams that may blow the team trial wide open.

[Moses Botbol]

Let's not forget Menchov... He is on a roll.

But he has some serious time to make up already from his lack luster Time Trial. With 3 more weeks to go, anything could happen though. It should be a fun tour for sure.

Yeah and I don't think he's going to fair well in the team time trial either. There are a couple of really stacked teams that may blow the team trial wide open.

Astana is gonna dominate everyone in TTT. I'd expect Saxo Bank to fair well.

[Glenn E.]

Astana is gonna dominate everyone in TTT. I'd expect Saxo Bank to fair well.

Yeah that's my expectation also.

[Andy Velebil]

just started watching and they said Menchov crashed, but got back up and Rabobank is now over a minute down...not good for him. It will be interesting, it's a very techincal course and super narrow!

[Andy Velebil]

Oh no. team telecom just crashed, like 4 of them

[Moses Botbol]

So much for watching this when I get home... Some teams don't practice TTT enough to their own fault.

[Glenn E.]

Wow, sounds like it's really biting the teams hard! I'm recording it at the moment and plan to watch it after lunch.

[Eric Menchen]

Don't read this post Glenn, if you haven't watched yet!

No surprise today really with Astana winning the TTT. I just wonder if Lance is too prominent at such an early point in the race. With the time trial on day one and the TTT today he didn't have much choice, but I think he would have had better odds if he could have just stuck around with a lower profile for a week or so before pulling ahead in some of the mountain stages.

I don't get the TV channel to watch, but like to read the dispatches at work when I can.

[Moses Botbol]

Who knows how well Lance will do in the mountains, so take the yellow if and when you can, but don't try to defend it. Lance does not have it yet and if he does get it tomorrow, could be an ace in Contador's hat.

I bet Lance will make Contador earn the race like Hinault did to Lemond.

Which stages are without radio?

[Glenn E.]

Has anyone actually checked the published times yet to see if they actually got it right after Stage 4? Versus originally thought that Lance should have been in yellow, but they were probably working from the rounded off numbers and so thought he only had to beat Fabian by exactly 40 seconds. Astana finished 40.11 seconds ahead, but according to tonight's (Stage 5) commentary Fabian beat Lance in the individual TT by xx.32. So Astana ultimately need to beat Saxo Bank by 40.33 to put Lance in yellow.

Or so they say. I haven't seen individual TT results that carry out to 1/100 of a second.

Interesting finish today, too. Hard to believe that the sprinters' teams let a flat finish like that escape, but I guess they were all expecting Columbia HTC to do all the work again.

[Andy Velebil]

Another great stage today. A break away, then the youngest rider and a neo-pro in the Tour putting the hammer down to win the stage. The Astana train that just smoked the field with their relentless pace at the end. Causing the current overall leader to blow his stack and lose over 5 minutes in the last few kilometers. Contador smoking away from the peloton at the top to put him 1 second ahead of Lance. Wow, what a great Tour this has been so far.

[Eric Menchen]

Yes. We usually don't get all this action until at least the second week.

[Glenn E.]

Yeah, and I don't think it's going to let up much. Sure there are some flat stages to come during the middle of the race, but unlike most years there's an HC climb the day before Paris! They have really ensured that the excitement with stretch the entire duration this year, as no one can hope to claim a comfortable lead before Mont Ventoux. That's one of those finishes that can easily cause a 5 to 8 minutes swing.

[Glenn E.]

Well... Astana's hand has now been shown.

In retrospect, I get the feeling that it was all a staged show. I get the feeling that while Lance really wanted a shot at winning, that he (and more importantly both Johan and Alberto) knew that he probably couldn't win it but that Alberto easily could with proper support. So the controlling interest (read: Johan and Lance) decided to support both riders as much as possible, knowing that Lance could easily handle the media pressure and give Alberto some space. Then when the real race began in the Alps, Lance would do his best but Alberto would probably take control, at which point Lance would "officially" become a super domestique. I doubt that losing Levi had much of an effect on their plans at all... they're so strong that one support rider isn't that big of a deal.

My guess is that they will continue to "support" Lance as much as possible in the hopes of putting two riders on the podium, but that from here out Alberto is their obvious GC contender. Lance, however, is probably still the real team leader due to his experience. (I noted that Alberto and Lance were talking shortly before both of Alberto's attacks.)

Convoluted? Yes. Beyond Johan Bruneel's fiendishly clever capabilities? Not hardly.

[Andy Velebil]

Well... Astana's hand has now been shown.

In retrospect, I get the feeling that it was all a staged show. I get the feeling that while Lance really wanted a shot at winning, that he (and more importantly both Johan and Alberto) knew that he probably couldn't win it but that Alberto easily could with proper support. So the controlling interest (read: Johan and Lance) decided to support both riders as much as possible, knowing that Lance could easily handle the media pressure and give Alberto some space. Then when the real race began in the Alps, Lance would do his best but Alberto would probably take control, at which point Lance would "officially" become a super domestique. I doubt that losing Levi had much of an effect on their plans at all... they're so strong that one support rider isn't that big of a deal.

My guess is that they will continue to "support" Lance as much as possible in the hopes of putting two riders on the podium, but that from here out Alberto is their obvious GC contender. Lance, however, is probably still the real team leader due to his experience. (I noted that Alberto and Lance were talking shortly before both of Alberto's attacks.)
I've been saying this all along...LA and Johan are masters at this game.

Convoluted? Yes. Beyond Johan Bruneel's fiendishly clever capabilities? Not hardly.