2025 Beneficio: 75,000 barrels

[Eric Menchen]

Ouch!
https://porttoportwine.blogspot.com/202 ... 75000.html
More protests coming? I expect so. It was already happening.
https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2025/ ... e-streets/

[Andy Velebil]

Ouch indeed!

[Lucas S]

This Port glut/low demand ratio will not last. As I said last year when they cut to 90K, they want to redouble their efforts in improving global distribution, not cut supply. And if a pipa is only 1K euro, then they need to get bottling & processing costs down to get that cheap port out there. Can literally sell Two Buck Chuck Port at that price, college students alone would buy it all up - many of whom would then become long term customers.

Cutting supply gets you nowhere when there is competition. Coincidentally, OPEC just announced they are loosening supply again next month because cutting supply hasn't propped up prices, it has only cost them market share.

[Roy Hersh]

This level of cuts is going to be dangerous. I can't remember the last time that Beneficio was this low. And as terrible as this is for the Port trade, special categories continue to do well. Is it time to move away from basic Ruby & basic Tawny Port altogether?

While this decrease will result in long term effects for those that farm the Douro and the producers as well, right now there is a larger danger and I will post about that in a few minutes. Things are getting really serious in parts of PT at the moment.

[Roy Hersh]

Back to Beneficio:

2025 with its 75,000 pipa quota, is the lowest of all In the 21st century.

2011, was an outstanding year and due to a MAJOR faux pas by the then head of the IVDP, (and to a lesser extent, the Minister of Agriculture) the quantity had been reduced from 2010 by the largest increment, possibly ever. It went down from 110,000 pipas in 2010 to 85,000 pipas in 2011. That reduction of 25,000 pipas in one year, caused riots by growers, in the streets ... with rocks being thrown through the IVDP (Régua HQ) building and eventually was one of the reasons the President of the IVDP was fired and replaced.

In 2012, there was an immediate increase back to 96,000 pipas, and it went upwards from there to a high of 118,00 pipas in 2017 ... odd because it was the year with extraordinary and deadly fires throughout PT. But until 2024, the Beneficio had not dropped below 100k pipes, but then it plummeted again from (2023) 104k down to 90,000. So percentage wise, this was the largest drop in 2025 to go from 90k to 75k pipes, since the debacle in 2011.

Will there be ramifications, or is there so much of a glut in warehouses in the UK, Denmark, Canada and the USA along with other key markets -- that this had to be done?

[Al B.]

I can't comment about countries outside the UK, but there is a glut of unsold Port in the warehouses in this country. This is partly due to a change in tax structure on wines in the UK where duty is now based on the alcohol content of each bottle - meaning a very significant increase in the tax needing to be paid on a bottle of Port. As a result, many importers - especially the UK supermarkets who are the main source of entry level Ports - brought substantial numbers of bottles into the UK before the duty rates changed. Sadly, the bottles did not sell as quickly as expected with the result that there are still many cases of bottles in stock.

In addition, with the UK's reputation as a strong market for vintage Ports there was a good volume of 2020, 2021 and 2022 Ports shipped over in the expectation of selling through. Sadly they haven't, so are still available from importer stocks stored in UK bonded storage. It is noticeable that with the 2023 vintage, importers are only bringing wines into the UK when they have been pre-sold.

The growth we see in the UK is with TWIOA, especially 10 and 20YO, and White Port (but from a much smaller base).

Given the reduction in beneficio, all I can imagine is that the IVDP is looking to push producers into making less "quick sell" Port and instead to hold volume for longer to support the explosion in the volume of sales of 10 and 20YO.

[Roy Hersh]

The USA is in a similar bind, but for different reasons, nothing to do directly with tax. Indirectly, USA tariffs ARE having a negative effect ... at least here in PT, as small and medium sized producers are quietly speaking of their fears stemming from the USA market specifically, but the larger global market for Port as well.

But sad to hear about the glut of 2020/2021/2022 VPs that Alex mentioned above. Might be good for the consumer if prices come down a little bit, but that really doesn't help the situation or the producers. Those vintages already offered good value in reality, but also while the world still was uneasy due to Covid, sales were slipping after consumption returned to pre-Covid levels. But then started decreasing from there. 2023 VP, may be good, but here in PT everything seems to be leaning to 2024 as the next Classic. Obviously way too early but loads of advanced chatter about '24s, which I've not seen since the 2011's were expected.

Back on topic: In the USA there was a LARGE quantity of recent VPs and Port in general that has been left unsold. Add to that some importers decided to take advantage of the short window they had to stock their distributors, as soon as the topic of tariffs were mentioned, in hopes of buying at the lower price.

The continued decline in Gen Z with ALL alcohol products, and the onslaught of writers bringing up the negative long term effects of alcohol on those who imbibe, is fueling this downward cycle. And a cycle it is. We've seen this movie before, many times in fact. How long will it last, nobody can predict with any accuracy, unfortunately. The ONLY good news is that "Special Categories" of Port, is the mainstay that keeps Port from falling off a cliff in the USA. People are loving some of the newer categories of Port.

Quite a few years ago, I was quite vocal about the Port trade getting rid of the "basic" and low priced Ruby and Tawny Port segments and instead starting the Reserva level, in the marketplace. I remember Cristiano van Zeller, thought it was a "non-starter" of an idea at the time, because he felt the 3 euro difference between the basic level and Reserva level would hurt Port sales more than help. I still would love to see that happen someday, as the only way Port grows back to the "good old days" is with young people discovering Port and having a better experience than what they are able to drink in the Ruby and Tawny entry levels.

I am really hoping that sales in 2026, of 2024 Vintage Ports makes an impact and can get the Beneficio back over 100,000 pipes in the next few years. My optimism remains, but this Gen Z problem, is a tough one for all sectors of alcohol. It is not like beer sales have increased dramatically. So I am not sure what the college age crowd is consuming nowadays?

[Andy Velebil]

USA wine issues are not a cycle this time. It’s a hard reset that won’t rebound to previous levels. For a variety of reasons, we’re seeing a complete change in people’s buying and drinking.

Younger gen for health, pricing, and some others. Older, because they’ve got enough already and aren’t drinking as much.

[Roy Hersh]

I hope your wrong, but we shall see. I remember moments in previous decades when long downward cycles were said to be complete resets. Nobody ever saw the bottom coming. Nor did they know or even believe that there would be an increase again. "You may be right, I may be crazy ... "

[Eric Menchen]

Percentage of Americans who say they drink alcohol hits record low, Gallup says
https://www.npr.org/2025/08/13/nx-s1-55 ... udy-gallup