The Rise & Fall of the Euro

[Glenn E.]

Here's to the continuing fall of the euro!

Speaking of which... 1.07173

[David Spriggs]

I've sent EFT and wires to many retailers. There is no problem. They will give you their banking info, or sometimes already have it posted online.

[Bryan H.]

I bought some euros today at 1.0913 all-in. Mid-market sitting at 1.0688 now...buy price at xe.com is 1.0887.

Keep on dropping!

[Roy Hersh]

It was at 1.07+ all day and now is under ... absolutely incredible! 1.06869

[Matt K]

I've been following the rate, something I don't generally do, and a few articles have quotes from 'experts' who suggest we may see parity by this summer.

[Eric Menchen]

I've been following the rate, something I don't generally do, and a few articles have quotes from 'experts' who suggest we may see parity by this summer.

If the performance last week could be used to predict future results, there could be parity next week. 1.054 now.

[Matt K]

Its not on a constant slope - it's more fits/starts around central bank announcements and actions apparently...

[Eric Menchen]

Its not on a constant slope - it's more fits/starts around central bank announcements and actions apparently...

I concur, thus my disclaimer. But as spring is about 10 days away, I wouldn't be surprised to see parity before summer.

[Matt K]

Early morning it hit 1.05 but it's back to 1.06. Amazing.

[Bryan H.]

Read an article and talked to some financial types that think we could see 0.85 this year, particularly if the US Fed raises interest rates.

[Roy Hersh]

1.04986 ... parity is plausible. I never thought I'd see that again. For all of you trackers, when was the last time that happened?

[Glenn E.]

1.04986 ... parity is plausible. I never thought I'd see that again. For all of you trackers, when was the last time that happened?

1.0487 on Jan 09, 2003

All of the records we're likely to see will date from that time frame, as the Euro went from the upper 80-cents range to over $1 during 2002. It crossed parity for good on Dec 4, 2002.

[Roy Hersh]

Thanks Glenn. Good to know!

While it may not be good for profits on tours, I don't care, as I can offer the best prices ever for these tours. Likely $1100 less than a year ago. I have asked none of our 2015 tour cients for a deposit months ago when pricing was higher as I truly hoped we'd see the Euro fall as dramatically as some had predicted after the Crimea and Isis issues were exacerbated. My wife thinks I have lost my mind.

[Matt K]

The chief forex strategist at the investment bank, Robin Brooks, just slashed his forecast for the shared currency EURUSD, -1.32% and said it will be worth the same as the dollar in September this year — a sharp revision from the previous outlook that didn’t call for parity until late 2016. The euro traded at $1.0532 on Friday.
...
That combination sent the euro to a 12-year low against the dollar this week and nothing suggests a rebound over the next couple of years, according to Goldman Sachs. In 2017, the shared currency is even expected to fall to as low as 80 cents, which would be the weakest level ever for the euro. Less than a year ago, investors fretted about the strength of the euro when it almost hit $1.40 in May, worrying that the strong currency would strangle the fragile economic recovery in the euro bloc.

Considering the below Goldman Sachs forecast, it looks like investors won’t have to worry about the $1.40 level for a while.
Goldman Sachs’ euro outlook
New forecast / Old forecast
3-month $1.02 / $1.12
6-month $1 / $1.10
12-month 95 cents / $1.08
End-2016 85 cents / $1
End-2017 80 cents / 90 cents

Other analysts are backing Goldman Sachs’ call for euro-dollar parity. Deutsche Bank on Tuesday cuts its euro forecast to dollar parity by year-end and to 85 cents by end of 2017, arguing the “euroglut” is here to stay.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-lo ... 2015-03-13

[Glenn E.]

My wife thinks I have lost my mind.

After 10+ years of marriage, she's just figuring that out now???

[Roy Hersh]

As soon as Matt K. entered the expert's prognostication of course there was a significant upward correction proving that there are NO real experts when judging the short term flux of currency. Currently @ 1.09646.

[Roy Hersh]

Glenn, very salient point my friend!

[Eric Menchen]

Matt's quoted information was three or more months out. There is still plenty of time.

Sent from my XT1060 using Tapatalk

[Roy Hersh]

And I for one, hope the predictions come true. We shall see. Parity would be incredible. I never thought we'd ever see that again.

[Matt K]

A buddy of mine who is an investment planner, when I mentioned the rate, told me there would be a bounce before we hit parity and sure enough there's the bounce...the day after he told me that FWIW.

Where it leads now is anyone's guess but the published expert consensus seems to be that not only is parity coming but we might see it as low as .85 in the next few years - the long term data looks bad for the euro, good for the $ (grossly oversimplified and paraphrased).