Higher, lower, stay the same, quickly, slowly, neither, both?
So, where do you see them heading? Go ahead and take a shot at it, but please do back up your views. I am interested to see what you think will be the Port market conditions for the near term, mid-term and/or long-term. Define the "terms" however you'd like.
There are no wrong answers, as none of us have a crystal ball.
Where do you predict Port pricing will go?
Moderators: Glenn E., Roy Hersh, Andy Velebil
Where do you predict Port pricing will go?
Ambition driven by passion, rather than money, is as strong an elixir as is Port. http://www.fortheloveofport.com
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Frederick Blais
- Posts: 2743
- Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 10:07 am
- Location: Porto, Portugal
Right now in the Douro the buzz is around dry wines. With WS and WA giving more spaces in their reviews each new year, I don't see an increase for demand of Port that could drive the price higher.
I'm not aware about the USA market, but here in Québec the VP is struggling to sale though the Tawnies and LBVs are selling well. The main demand is for highly attractive wine/port that is ready/good to drink when you purchase it. I could see the prices for that type of Port increasing slightly as for VP, until they get a new buzz like the one for the 94 Vintages, I see the prices stable for the releases.
A troubling fact is the number of sales 2-3 years after their relaease. They want to make space on the shelves for the new ones arriving. People have their cellar filles with 94/97/2000 that are not ready to drink and feel they don't need to buy each new vintages unless they are fanatic collectors.
I'm not aware about the USA market, but here in Québec the VP is struggling to sale though the Tawnies and LBVs are selling well. The main demand is for highly attractive wine/port that is ready/good to drink when you purchase it. I could see the prices for that type of Port increasing slightly as for VP, until they get a new buzz like the one for the 94 Vintages, I see the prices stable for the releases.
A troubling fact is the number of sales 2-3 years after their relaease. They want to make space on the shelves for the new ones arriving. People have their cellar filles with 94/97/2000 that are not ready to drink and feel they don't need to buy each new vintages unless they are fanatic collectors.
Living the dream and now working for a Port company
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Scott Anaya
- Posts: 292
- Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 5:15 pm
- Location: Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America - USA
Hmmmm, very amatuer guesses here.
Short term: Remain Stable for new vintages (unless it is a modern classic and gets really hyped). I really agree with Frederick when he said that current VP drinkers are stocked up and waiting on their 94, 97, and 2000's to mature as that is my exact situation. I have only recently started thinking I should buy a few 2003 VP's as I know I will appreciate them later in life, but its hard with a bunch of other stuff in the cellar and a limited budget.
Mid Term: I think prices will follow the luxury market/world economy to some degree. As Asia creates an ever increasing Upper Middle and Upper Class I think consumption of Port and sweet wines to which some countrie have an affinity for may increase, and prices could climb steadily.
If we see a decade of serious global recession, well VP prices may actually decline.
Long Term: hmmmm, I might go out on a limb and guess that with wine consumption in general on the rise and increasing per capita in the US and around the globe, that we might start seeing some of them take to drinking Port along the way? Which maybe has Port prices remaining somewhat steady as older drinkers are simply replaced, or maybe the next generations of Port drinkers numbers actually increases???? I don't know.
I also wonder what affect the gaining popularity of dry wines from the Duoro might have mid-term and long. Will we start to see less VP made as dry reds become more profitable? Or will the dry wines shoulder and lead more people to Port?
Short term: Remain Stable for new vintages (unless it is a modern classic and gets really hyped). I really agree with Frederick when he said that current VP drinkers are stocked up and waiting on their 94, 97, and 2000's to mature as that is my exact situation. I have only recently started thinking I should buy a few 2003 VP's as I know I will appreciate them later in life, but its hard with a bunch of other stuff in the cellar and a limited budget.
Mid Term: I think prices will follow the luxury market/world economy to some degree. As Asia creates an ever increasing Upper Middle and Upper Class I think consumption of Port and sweet wines to which some countrie have an affinity for may increase, and prices could climb steadily.
If we see a decade of serious global recession, well VP prices may actually decline.
Long Term: hmmmm, I might go out on a limb and guess that with wine consumption in general on the rise and increasing per capita in the US and around the globe, that we might start seeing some of them take to drinking Port along the way? Which maybe has Port prices remaining somewhat steady as older drinkers are simply replaced, or maybe the next generations of Port drinkers numbers actually increases???? I don't know.
I also wonder what affect the gaining popularity of dry wines from the Duoro might have mid-term and long. Will we start to see less VP made as dry reds become more profitable? Or will the dry wines shoulder and lead more people to Port?
Scott Anaya
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Frederick Blais
- Posts: 2743
- Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 10:07 am
- Location: Porto, Portugal
Right now Asia does not seem to be in a hurry to jump into the race to get great ports as they do for Burgundy and Bordeaux Star. But it is a fact that if they come in, prices will climb fast.Scott Anaya wrote:
Long Term: hmmmm, I might go out on a limb and guess that with wine consumption in general on the rise and increasing per capita in the US and around the globe, that we might start seeing some of them take to drinking Port along the way? Which maybe has Port prices remaining somewhat steady as older drinkers are simply replaced, or maybe the next generations of Port drinkers numbers actually increases???? I don't know.
I also wonder what affect the gaining popularity of dry wines from the Duoro might have mid-term and long. Will we start to see less VP made as dry reds become more profitable? Or will the dry wines shoulder and lead more people to Port?
Will the increasing popularity of Douro wines will reflect in a deacrease of Port production that will put the offer under the demand to increase price of being able to keep them at what they are?
Yes Douro wines is much more cheaper to produce than Port. Port must be the most expensive alcohol drink to produce. There was a short documentory at my local TV the other night stating how hard it is to survive making Port and wine in such hard conditions that the Douro is. They roughly explained why companies where buying others in an attempt to reduce costs and being competitive. Others like Niepoort's are just trying to be innovative and taking some bets that will probably pay off in the future.
Living the dream and now working for a Port company
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Moses Botbol
- Posts: 6030
- Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 7:38 am
- Location: Boston, USA
The way the last few vintages have been priced and the euro vs dollar... I see port prices for current releases to continue to be high. Same for France... Maybe 10 years after release will the vintage price come back down to reality as we are seeing with the 95's. Even the 2000's look more realistic than they did two years ago.
Perhaps the industry model is now charge a premium and see where the stock is a few years later? I would venture to see a steady increase in port sales over the next decade as new wine drinkers evolve in ports and madeira; a rediscovery of sorts...
Perhaps the industry model is now charge a premium and see where the stock is a few years later? I would venture to see a steady increase in port sales over the next decade as new wine drinkers evolve in ports and madeira; a rediscovery of sorts...
Welsh Corgis | F1 |British Cars
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Jay Powers
- Posts: 527
- Joined: Wed May 17, 2006 10:48 pm
- Location: Pacifica, California, United States of America - USA
I doubt they will go down, with older vintages increasing in price. The insane prices for Bordeaux and also California Cabernet indicae to me that there are a lot of people who have a lot of money to spend on wine. As reds in general become more and more popular at the high end, I believe the older vintages of Port, and in particular those that have scored well in the past with Parker, will go up.
I think that current and new releases will stay much the same in price, allowing for inflation, until they develop a reputation.
Jay
I think that current and new releases will stay much the same in price, allowing for inflation, until they develop a reputation.
Jay
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Thomas McColl
- Posts: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:10 am
- Location: Leipzig, Germany
not out on a limb
I bet that port prices rise over time, which is to say that inflation will continue. I also bet that auction prices will decline should there be a slump in world asset markets.
Does anyone know how the Port sellers deal with the weakness of the US dollar? Are prices continually adjusted to reflect the dollar-euro balance, or do the sellers earn fewer euros?
Does anyone know how the Port sellers deal with the weakness of the US dollar? Are prices continually adjusted to reflect the dollar-euro balance, or do the sellers earn fewer euros?
Thomas McColl
Yes Thomas. I will wait until the end of this week for others to make comments and then I will take the plunge myself. I really am enjoying the reading of well conceived opinions here!
Ambition driven by passion, rather than money, is as strong an elixir as is Port. http://www.fortheloveofport.com
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Thomas McColl
- Posts: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2006 9:10 am
- Location: Leipzig, Germany
End the suspense!
Me: I suspect prices for luxury goods will rise above inflation in the long term. Short term I get the impression there is a lot of port working its way through the UK market and this will continue to undermine declarations in the short term and present opportunities in the medium term when asset prices blip.
Having met the likes of Dirk the passion is evident and whilst I want them to succeed I am aware that the pricing of the wines might price me out in the long term but heck I've a bit of fantastic port to drink in the medium term so good for them!
Me: I suspect prices for luxury goods will rise above inflation in the long term. Short term I get the impression there is a lot of port working its way through the UK market and this will continue to undermine declarations in the short term and present opportunities in the medium term when asset prices blip.
Having met the likes of Dirk the passion is evident and whilst I want them to succeed I am aware that the pricing of the wines might price me out in the long term but heck I've a bit of fantastic port to drink in the medium term so good for them!
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Mike S1.
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 11:43 pm
- Location: San Francisco, California, United States of America - USA
Port Prices
Hi I'm new 
In my opinion, I believe Port prices will rise over time on all levels - old and new vintages. I believe the market for rare wine and especially the market for Port wine is only just catching on the USA and the global demand is still ever increasing. Further, the concept of "laying down" wine for maturity is especially only just catching on and this is critical for the Port consumer :idea:
Simple laws of supply and demand come into play here and especially for our rarer time-honored Ports. As more people turn to the rare wine markets the more people there will be picking off the great selections from the past and present across the globe. If the USA truly is just getting the ball rolling with appreciating vintage Port then these rare wines are sitting ducks, for the USA has a tremendous ability to consume. If you don't think the demand is there to support high prices, use 2005 Bordeaux prices as an example, they're absurd but everyone still paid them, and it brought the price of historical vintages up along with them. With top Bordeaux it's almost like your not even buying wine anymore, your buying a piece of art, an investment, a moment is history, or a rare collectible to drive down the street and impress your neighbors with. If it was just wine people wouldn't pay $1,200/btl pre-release for it. And while the same feelings can come from a rare bottle of Port (especially for people like us) it's still a niche market within the rare wine kingdom. But, the Bordeaux craze and the developing wine market will bring Port along with it and as the love of Port continues to rise so will it's prices.
It's not just the USA either, it's among the rest of the world, but to provide one example of a nation new to the rare and fine wine market is China whom also have tremendous buying power. They've increasingly been chomping massive pieces of Bordeaux and California cult wines over the last decade and they're getting even more hungry by the minute. To my knowledge they haven't quite yet tapped into the Vintage Port market substantially enough to be a true player, but they will eventually.
Honestly I think the days of being able to buy a well aged (even 20-30 years) bottle of Vintage Port from a top producer (crappy vintage or not) for a hundred or couple hundred bucks is running thin.
My two cents...
m
In my opinion, I believe Port prices will rise over time on all levels - old and new vintages. I believe the market for rare wine and especially the market for Port wine is only just catching on the USA and the global demand is still ever increasing. Further, the concept of "laying down" wine for maturity is especially only just catching on and this is critical for the Port consumer :idea:
Simple laws of supply and demand come into play here and especially for our rarer time-honored Ports. As more people turn to the rare wine markets the more people there will be picking off the great selections from the past and present across the globe. If the USA truly is just getting the ball rolling with appreciating vintage Port then these rare wines are sitting ducks, for the USA has a tremendous ability to consume. If you don't think the demand is there to support high prices, use 2005 Bordeaux prices as an example, they're absurd but everyone still paid them, and it brought the price of historical vintages up along with them. With top Bordeaux it's almost like your not even buying wine anymore, your buying a piece of art, an investment, a moment is history, or a rare collectible to drive down the street and impress your neighbors with. If it was just wine people wouldn't pay $1,200/btl pre-release for it. And while the same feelings can come from a rare bottle of Port (especially for people like us) it's still a niche market within the rare wine kingdom. But, the Bordeaux craze and the developing wine market will bring Port along with it and as the love of Port continues to rise so will it's prices.
It's not just the USA either, it's among the rest of the world, but to provide one example of a nation new to the rare and fine wine market is China whom also have tremendous buying power. They've increasingly been chomping massive pieces of Bordeaux and California cult wines over the last decade and they're getting even more hungry by the minute. To my knowledge they haven't quite yet tapped into the Vintage Port market substantially enough to be a true player, but they will eventually.
Honestly I think the days of being able to buy a well aged (even 20-30 years) bottle of Vintage Port from a top producer (crappy vintage or not) for a hundred or couple hundred bucks is running thin.
My two cents...
m
Last edited by Mike S1. on Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Luc Gauthier
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:38 pm
- Location: Montréal Canada
I'd like to see a few more people put their toes in the water. I have plenty to say on this one and probably could do the topic better justice in a newsletter article. However, I will add my thoughts here shortly.
Ambition driven by passion, rather than money, is as strong an elixir as is Port. http://www.fortheloveofport.com
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Michael M.
- Posts: 191
- Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 8:13 am
- Location: Windberg, Germany
In comparision to the market of first-class Bordeaux, VP is shurely a niche. But what is the reason for that? Quality is equal. The high level of alcohol perhaps? Or the limited possibilities to combine with food? I do not think, that people are afraid of the alcohol and I would not assume, that first-class Bordeaux is bought to trink it at the table. Wich kind of wine has such a fantastic ratio of quality and price as Vintage Port (or LBV too). I think, probably the limited information in the past about this kind could be one reason for a lack of demand. But times will change. As you see this or other forums: In opposition to several years ago, tons of information is now available.
Port has just to be discovered by those winelovers and collectors IMO. And they will discover Port sooner or later. There always have been temporary fashions in the universe of wine. People are always looking for something new. Some regions rise and fall like Beaujolais and Muscadet in France. But the difference to Port is its first class quality and the tradition and know-how of the port industrie. They would never allow a damage of the product because of excesses.
According to the proceding considerations price will rise notaby IMO. And I would not be surprised if, in some years, portlovers and portcollectors will notice, that their liquid sweethearts also had been a very good investment.
Just my 2 cents.
Cheers
Michael
Port has just to be discovered by those winelovers and collectors IMO. And they will discover Port sooner or later. There always have been temporary fashions in the universe of wine. People are always looking for something new. Some regions rise and fall like Beaujolais and Muscadet in France. But the difference to Port is its first class quality and the tradition and know-how of the port industrie. They would never allow a damage of the product because of excesses.
According to the proceding considerations price will rise notaby IMO. And I would not be surprised if, in some years, portlovers and portcollectors will notice, that their liquid sweethearts also had been a very good investment.
Just my 2 cents.
Cheers
Michael
I think that prior to providing my own opinion here on pricing, it is important to separate some myths and fact. I've just started another thread for that purpose. http://www.fortheloveofport.com/ftlopfo ... php?t=3546
However, I will be back here to FINALLY share thoughts on where I think the Port market will head.
The only time I was VERY wrong, was in predicting that 2000 VPs would achieve solid gains in value, within 5 years of release (about the same time that FTLOP came into being). This predicition was made in 2002, a full 3 years before FTLOP existed, but I do want to go on the record with this fact, too. Admittedly I was mistaken and misread the impact of 9-11 and the geo-political issues that I could not foresee, as well as the mis-guided actions taken by the US government. But back to Port.
I have strong "opinons" on where Port pricing will head, but as with 2000 VPs, I've learned that any prediction re: the short to medium term pricing index of Port (or just about anyting else including real estate) is sheer folly. It is fraught with roller coaster dynamics that can not be seen regardless of the periscope or crystal ball used.
So even though I have used the above as a "disclaimer" for my upcoming analysis
it certainly won't stop me from plunging forth over the precipice, precisely( 
) predicting Port pricing prominently here on FTLOP's Forum. 
<---- Roy after putting his foot, ankle deep in his mouth.
However, I will be back here to FINALLY share thoughts on where I think the Port market will head.
The only time I was VERY wrong, was in predicting that 2000 VPs would achieve solid gains in value, within 5 years of release (about the same time that FTLOP came into being). This predicition was made in 2002, a full 3 years before FTLOP existed, but I do want to go on the record with this fact, too. Admittedly I was mistaken and misread the impact of 9-11 and the geo-political issues that I could not foresee, as well as the mis-guided actions taken by the US government. But back to Port.
I have strong "opinons" on where Port pricing will head, but as with 2000 VPs, I've learned that any prediction re: the short to medium term pricing index of Port (or just about anyting else including real estate) is sheer folly. It is fraught with roller coaster dynamics that can not be seen regardless of the periscope or crystal ball used.
So even though I have used the above as a "disclaimer" for my upcoming analysis
it certainly won't stop me from plunging forth over the precipice, precisely( ) predicting Port pricing prominently here on FTLOP's Forum. <---- Roy after putting his foot, ankle deep in his mouth.Ambition driven by passion, rather than money, is as strong an elixir as is Port. http://www.fortheloveofport.com
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Moses Botbol
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Michael M.
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- Location: Windberg, Germany
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Andy Velebil
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It'll probably be a bit as Roy is gone/busy most of this month and then the Harvest Tour the first week of October.
Andy Velebil Good wine is a good familiar creature if it be well used. William Shakespeare http://www.fortheloveofport.com
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Mark DaSilva
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- Location: Mission Viejo, California, United States of America - USA
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Jay Powers
- Posts: 527
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- Location: Pacifica, California, United States of America - USA
2003 is a very nice vintage to be sure, and I have more than a few in my cellar. But it seems to me the retail shelves are still pretty well stocked. Seems like I can't walk into a store these days without tripping over some Niepoort '03. With the 2004 SQVP's on the shelves as well, and the 2005's hitting the shelves now, will prices on the '03's really rise anytime soon?
Especially as the prices on the 94's and 85's (for the most part) are roughly the same, with many of the the 85's ready to drink now? I can still get a 1985 Fonseca for the same price as the '00 and '03, and most of the '94's (with the exception of Fonseca and Taylor) as well. 1997 seems like a forgotten vintage as well, pricewise.
My prediction for the 2003's is a price increase in 2012-2013, in time for 10 year anniverseries.
Jay
Especially as the prices on the 94's and 85's (for the most part) are roughly the same, with many of the the 85's ready to drink now? I can still get a 1985 Fonseca for the same price as the '00 and '03, and most of the '94's (with the exception of Fonseca and Taylor) as well. 1997 seems like a forgotten vintage as well, pricewise.
My prediction for the 2003's is a price increase in 2012-2013, in time for 10 year anniverseries.
Jay